If you've been feeling the shift in the San Antonio market lately, you're not imagining it. The numbers are in, and they confirm what a lot of agents have been sensing on the ground: the red-hot seller's market we rode for the past few years has cooled significantly and the ripple effects are starting to reach all the way into city hall.
A recent KSAT report broke down how both the City of San Antonio and Bexar County are now scrambling to adjust their budgets as property values soften. That's a big deal for local government, but what does it mean for you and your clients right now? Let's dig in.
The Numbers Behind the Shift
Here's a quick snapshot of what's happening in the market. According to the Texas A&M University Real Estate Research Center, average home sale prices in Bexar County peaked in 2022 at around $345,200. By 2025, that figure had slipped to $338,800 not a cliff drop, but a meaningful decline when you factor in years of inflation and rising costs of living.
More telling is what's happened to total market value. Even accounting for new construction, the total value of all single-family residential homes in the county dropped by more than $203 million compared to last year. That's not a blip. Rogelio Sandoval, the chief appraiser at the Bexar Central Appraisal District, put it plainly: "I haven't seen a market like this since maybe 2008, 2009, when the housing bubble."
Now, to be clear, we are NOT in 2008. The fundamentals are different — lending standards are stricter, and we're not dealing with the same kind of overleveraged chaos. But the comparison to a previous era of softening prices is worth paying attention to, especially as an agent advising clients on timing and expectations.
Why This Is a Budget Crisis for the City and County
Here's where the local government angle matters to you professionally. Both the City of San Antonio and Bexar County depend heavily on property tax revenues to fund everything from roads and parks to courts and law enforcement.
For the city, property taxes make up about 28% of the general fund. For the county, that number is an eye-popping 80%. So when home values fall — or even just stop growing — it creates real budget pressure at the top.
The city is projecting a potential $131 million deficit by FY 2027, which could balloon to $264 million by 2031 if nothing changes. That's partly driven by declining taxable values and a new $125,000 business personal property exemption. The city hasn't raised its property tax rate since 1993, but that conversation is now officially on the table for the first time in over three decades.
Bexar County has a bit more cushion — it doesn't expect a deficit until FY 2029 — but its budget director has made clear that the era of adding new positions and programs every year is over for now.
Why should you care about any of this? Because your clients care about their tax bills. And if the city or county raises tax rates to compensate for lower property values, homeowners could actually end up paying more even as their homes are worth less. That's an important conversation to have especially with seller clients who are weighing their timing.
What This Means for Buyers Right Now
This market is genuinely better for buyers than anything we've seen since before the pandemic. More inventory, less competition, and prices that have pulled back from their 2022 highs. If you're working with buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for "the right time," you have solid ammunition to make the case that the window is open.
A few things to frame for buyer clients:
More negotiating room. Sellers who listed during the peak years are increasingly realistic about pricing or should be, if they've got a good agent on their side. Buyers can often negotiate concessions, rate buydowns, or repairs that simply weren't on the table two years ago.
Property values aren't in freefall. A drop from $345K to $339K over three years is a modest correction, not a crash. Buyers shouldn't expect to "time the bottom" perfectly they should focus on finding the right home at a fair price in a market that's working in their favor.
Watch the tax rate conversation. If the city does raise its property tax rate, monthly costs for new buyers could tick up slightly even if purchase prices stay flat. It's worth helping clients run the numbers on total cost of ownership, not just the sticker price.
What This Means for Sellers Right Now
The harder conversation, honestly, is with sellers. The mindset of "list it on a Friday and have multiple offers by Monday" is gone in most price ranges. Sellers who are clinging to 2022 peak valuations need a reality check and that's your job to deliver, kindly but clearly.
Here's how to frame it:
Pricing correctly from day one matters more than ever. Overpriced listings are sitting. Days on market are up. A home that lingers sends a signal to buyers, and that signal is hard to undo. Coming in at the right price upfront will always beat a series of price reductions.
Their appraisal might come in lower than they expect. BCAD is reflecting a softer market in its assessments, and lender appraisals are following suit. Sellers need to be prepared for that reality before they get into contract not after.
They still have equity. Even with the pullback, most homeowners in San Antonio who bought before 2021 are still sitting on significant equity. The market softening doesn't erase the gains of the past decade. Help sellers zoom out and look at the full picture.
The Opportunity Hidden in the Shift
Here's the thing: soft markets are actually great markets for skilled agents. Here's why.
When prices only go up, anyone can sell a house. Buyers make decisions quickly and sometimes recklessly. The agent's job is almost secondary.
When the market softens, expertise matters again. Sellers need guidance on pricing strategy, staging, and negotiation. Buyers need an agent who understands the neighborhood-level nuances because not every zip code in Bexar County is moving the same way. Some areas are holding value better than others, and some submarkets are still seeing competitive activity.
If you're doing your homework studying the BCAD data, watching days-on-market trends by area, tracking new construction activity, and staying on top of developments like potential tax rate changes you're in a position to add real value to every client you work with.
That's the kind of market where great agents earn their reputation.
Staying Ahead of the Story
Keep an eye on a few key dates and developments over the coming months:
- Late July: BCAD certifies the appraisal roll to each taxing unit this will give the city and county clearer numbers to work with for their FY 2026 budgets.
- Fall budget season: Both the city and county will finalize their budgets. Watch for decisions on tax rates, which directly affect your clients' monthly carrying costs.
- Ongoing protest season: Property owners are still contesting their appraisal values. If you have clients who haven't filed a protest and think they might be over-assessed, the deadline already passed for most people but it's worth knowing for next year.
The San Antonio market isn't broken. It's correcting. And in a correction, the agents who stay informed, stay honest with their clients, and stay sharp on strategy are the ones who come out stronger on the other side.